This report analyses the building savings business in the Czech Republic for the 4Q2012. You will find all the necessary details regarding volume growth, market share, margin and asset quality development in the building savings (as well as mortgage lending segment). Also, the report compares profitability and efficiency ratio of the largest player CMSS with the main player in the mortgage lending business - Hypotecni Banka to find out how market dominance translates into economies of scale and superior profitability.
The key highlights from 4Q2012 we discuss in this report are:
• The business remains under pressure in spite of its impressive profitability. ROE fell to 15.2% in 2012 and net profit dropped 6% yoy in 4Q
• Lending continues to fall and is losing to mortgages. In 4Q12, the annual decline deepened to 3.3% yoy
• 4Q12 confirmed a recovery in terms of the number of new contracts sold, while deposits grew by a seasonally strong 3.2% qoq
• ČMSS remains the leader, but Raiffeisen grabs most of the growth
This report focuses specifically on development in CMSS in the 4Q2012. The main conclusions are:
Market position
ČMSS is the dominant leader of the building savings market, with a 43.6% share of building loans and 35.1% of building savings deposits as of the end of 2012. 55% of the bank is owned by the largest Czech bank, ČSOB, while the remaining 45% is held by BSH, the largest building savings society in Germany.
While the bank gained market share in lending in both 2012 (added 30 bp) and 4Q12 (23 bp), the bank has been losing its market share on the savings deposit market since the end of 2011. In 2012 the bank lost a further 64 bp, of which 12 bp was given away in 4Q.
Despite seasonally strong deposit growth in 4Q (up 1.2% qoq), the overall balance sheet momentum remains negative. Loans declined by a further 0.2% qoq and the full-year decline reached 2.6% yoy, while deposits dropped 1.8% in 2012.
Profitability
ČMSS remains impressively profitable in spite of the market slowdown. In 2012, the bank achieved ROE of 18.2%, well above the market (15.2%) or the whole banking system (14.4%).
Thanks partly to its dominant market position (and subsequent economies of scale), most of ČMSS’s ratios are superior to those of the market. These include ROE, costs to income, asset quality and so on.
When adjusted for surplus of capital, only Modrá Pyramida is more profitable than ČMSS, which is due partly to the low tax burden of Pyramida.
Asset quality
Non-performing loans dropped CZK 52 mil, or 1.6%, in 4Q and reached 2.51% of total loans (up from 2.38% at the end of 2011). Provision coverage remains relatively low at 42.5%, compared to the 53% of the market.
Cost-efficiency
As already described on page 12, ČMSS lacks the economies of scale Hypoteční Banka has achieved in the mortgage lending business. Operating costs accounted for 0.76% of average assets at ČMSS, more than the 0.73% seen on the market:
The comparison shown above suggests that ČMSS might be lacking synergies with its strategic partner ČSOB, something chart 48 implies – Modrá Pyramida has been improving its profitability since being completely taken over by Komerční Banka in 2006.
Apart from a different business model, ČMSS seems to be paying more for its employees than the market. On the basis of quarterly reports, we calculate that ČMSS paid its staff nearly CZK 58,000 gross a month, a quarter more than the competition.
The cost side will therefore be the single main factor to watch for ČMSS in the quarters to come, from our point of view.
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